Year: 2020 | Month: February | Volume 10 | Issue 1
Modeling Vaccination Programs in Outbreaks of Hemorrhagic Septicemia in India
DOI:10.30954/2277-940X.01.2020.2
Abstract:
Hemorrhagic septicemia (HS) is an acute septicemic endemic disease of buffalo and cattle in India with a case fatality rate of up to 80%. This disease causes an estimated economic loss of USD 792 million per year in India. Vaccination and control programs of HS can be understood by mathematical models. The main objective of our study was to design a mathematical model to analyze the effect of vaccination in controlling outbreaks of HS in India. We used posteriori model building approach to create and run the model for HS with the help of an outbreak data from Murshidabad district, West Bengal, India. The best possible transmission coefficient (β) to imitate the outbreak was found to be 0.335 and the best possible basic reproduction number (R0) was found to be 1.011. Introduction of the vaccination campaign from 5th to the 20th day of the HS outbreak reduced the proportion of the susceptible animals from 0.99 to 0.40 on the last day of the campaign. We concluded that animal vaccination modelling for eradication of HS by mass regional or nationwide vaccination campaigns can be understood by simple mathematical models.
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